I know, “these” is a bit ambiguous. That’s intentional, though I’ll be providing some concrete examples.
In this article
Travel Bookings are On the Rise
First, though, I want to make a point that follows up on an article I wrote recently about how now (then, but still now!) is the time to book your post-pandemic travel.
As people get shots in arms, they naturally start to get enthusiastic about travel. It’s not that the vaccine means you are immune to COVID-19 (since, at best it’s 95% efficacious and more mutations are likely to continue to occur), but it does seem to be a near certainty that with the vaccine in you, the chances of severe COVID or death is close to zero. That means that those that weren’t considering travel until now are suddenly hot to book future travel. I’m personally fairly sure that my first time on a plane since last February will be this April.
I’m seeing signs of the coming rush everywhere. On a recent phone call with the Hilton Diamond desk (curses that you still can’t use Free Night Awards online!) and after a 30 minute wait to get through, the agent let me know that the volume of calls for new bookings the last three weeks have been, in her words, insane.
Cruise lines have also reported huge upticks in future bookings the last few weeks.
And my award searches, anecdotally, are showing less availability than before. For example, I was previously finding wide open transcon saver space in Business Class on United, to spend just 12,500 Turkish miles on, each way. Now, I’ve been searching for an August time frame for weeks with zero seats on any flight within 6 days of my ideal date.
The bottom line is that availability is on the cusp of drying up and you can be sure that cash prices are about to go through the roof.
And cash buyers won’t care too much to pay $800 a night for a room that’s normally $300 because, TRAVEL!
And this is where some points are going to, in the near term, become more or less valuable.
Hotel Points with a Fixed Award Chart: More Valuable!
In my opinion, even though World of Hyatt will soon add their peak and off-peak category adjustments, they will remain the best hotel point. Already the most valuable by a multiple of roughly 3X that of Marriott Bonvoy, Hilton Honors, or IHG Rewards, they may be even more valuable in late 2021 and in 2022 – a time I think we will once again view in history as the Roaring 20’s as people more than make up for a year stuck in side.
This is because Hyatt has a real award chart wherein as standard rooms go up in price due to demand, award prices remain the same.
If a Hyatt room is 20,000 points a night or $300 now, it’s a meh use of points. But if that same room is $800 in 2022, your Hyatt points go that much further as the rate in points won’t increase. And beyond that, it’s exceedingly easy to book Hyatt’s suites using points. This means that even if standard rooms are sold out, you have a solid chance of still being able to snag a suite.
Marriott Bonvoy and Hilton Honors should also become worth more for the same reasons, although not by quite as much.
Marriott Bonvoy’s peak pricing can be quite exorbitant as it is and Hilton is pretty variable – but I include it here because (as of now!) Hilton still adheres to category maximums. For example, the Waldorf Astoria Beverly Hills won’t cost more than 95,000 points a night for a standard room whether the rate is $600 or $1,200.
However, Marriott Bonvoy rarely has suites available for points and Hilton never does except at exorbitant revenue based rates. So what I expect to happen with Marriott and Hilton in more popular places is very low award space. Their points will be worth more – but only assuming you find standard room space.
Wyndham Rewards points could become more valuable as they are best used for vacation rentals at a fixed 15,000 points per room, although maybe not as the availability may not be very good.
Transferable Bank Points: More Valuable!
Your transferable bank points become more valuable. This is because unlike airline miles, you can use your transferable bank points (Chase Ultimate Rewards, American Express Membership Rewards, Citi ThankYou points, and Capital One Miles) for whatever makes the most sense at the time.
It’s the same reason that I always preach the benefits of having a diversified set of points. Ideally, if your spend supports it, having a 6 figure balance in Chase, Amex, and Citi is a wise idea. I’m often asked which point to use when the transfer is to a partner that all programs transfer to and I answer that it varies based on how fast I’m currently able to replace each type of point and my current balance. I try to keep a fairly even stash, although I tend to have more Chase and Amex than Citi, as I primarily use Citi ThankYou to book Business Class United Airlines flights with Turkish miles.
The points will be more valuable for exactly the same reason. If one or two airlines you could fly don’t have space at a reasonable mileage cost, you can keep looking and transfer in when you find something that makes sense.
If you had only collected one airline’s miles, you would be out of luck.
Airline Miles: Mostly Less Valuable
Globally they will remain valuable, but any one program is likely to be less valuable.
Delta SkyMiles will undoubtedly be the biggest loser of value as they continue to raise the rates of their secret partner award charts and try to make SkyMiles worth a penny each. But even on Delta’s own flights, pricing of awards is dynamic. So as demand rises and prices rise, the cost in SkyMiles will, too. Perhaps they’ll have some decent Flash Sales.
Of course, both Delta and United notably took time during the pandemic to make their miles less valuable, even before the demand returns.
Overall, though, we will undoubtedly see less Saver style award space on all airlines, meaning that it will take quite a bit of work to find a solid deal, which will mostly remain on partner awards.
Dynamic Hotel Points: Less Valuable
IHG points come to mind first, as they have been working more and more towards all dynamic points rates. They do still have a ceiling by category, but they are also the worst at even having rooms for awards when rates are high. Their new Mr and Mrs Smith redemptions are right around the half a cent price point with little variation (and require a 30 day cancellation period. Yeesh.)
Accor Live Limitless points will also be less valuable since they are just used like cash and cash rates will rise.
Bottom Line
Be prepared. Take advantage of elevated credit card bonus offers. Book now what you can. Especially something like the Caesars / Atlantis Bahamas package which will get booked up and is cancellable until 7 days prior.
But overall, look for cancelable rates and generous airline change policies and get booking. I’m 100% sure that once enough people are vaccinated, we’ll be in for roughly 18 months of super inflated travel costs. A little planning now will mean better / cheaper travel for you later.
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Thoughts?
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